How a Bitcoin Supply will reach the Price to $100,000

As the world becomes increasingly captivated by the possibilities of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin continues to dominate the market. In this analysis, we delve into the intriguing concept of a Bitcoin supply crunch and its potential to drive the price to new heights, specifically $100,000. Join us as we explore the key factors and historical patterns that contribute to this exciting phenomenon.

Original by Forbes

Limited Supply and Surging Demand:

One of the fundamental characteristics that sets Bitcoin apart is its finite supply of 21 million units. This scarcity has piqued the interest of countless investors, leading to a staggering $25 billion flowing into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the start of the year. The surge in demand comes at a critical juncture, whereby Bitcoin’s available supply for trading on exchanges has hit its lowest level in over six years, according to Glassnode data.

The Halving Event:

Adding fuel to the fire is the upcoming halving event, a pre-programmed supply reduction that occurs every four years. Scheduled to take place on April 16, 2024, this event will see the amount of new Bitcoins issued by the network drop from 900 to 450 units per day. By constraining the daily supply, the halving event intensifies the scarcity narrative surrounding Bitcoin.

Implications for Price Surge:

The convergence of a limited supply and surging demand sets the stage for a potential price surge. Industry experts project that Bitcoin’s price could reach an impressive $100,000 by the end of 2024. This projection finds support in historical data, as previous halvings have resulted in substantial price increases. Following the 2016 and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin prices climbed by around 16% and 24% respectively, according to Coinbase data.

Institutional Interest and ETF Demand:

The growing institutional interest in Bitcoin is another significant factor driving the price surge. The approval of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs by regulatory authorities has paved the way for blue-chip firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco to enter the market. With a staggering $35 billion in assets under management, these Bitcoin ETFs are already demanding more Bitcoin than miners can produce. This trend further widens the supply-demand gap, potentially propelling Bitcoin’s price even higher.

Unleashing the Potential:

It is crucial to recognize that the potential price surge is not solely limited to Bitcoin ETFs’ demand. The availability of Bitcoin directly on exchanges adds another layer of demand that is not accounted for in the ETF figures. Portfolio managers and experts believe that the supply-demand disparity is more severe than anticipated. As the daily issuance of new Bitcoin is cut in half to an average of 450 units per day, the ratio of Bitcoin purchased through ETFs versus newly issued units of Bitcoin could reach a staggering 5.7 to 1.

Front-Running the Supply Crunch:

Some have questioned whether market participants are front-running the expected post-halving price jumps. However, industry analysts remain skeptical of this theory. Conversations with investors indicate that most are unaware of the impending supply crunch and are surprised when presented with on-chain data. Instead, investors are allocating to Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement and for portfolio diversification, given its historically low correlation with traditional asset classes.

Post-Halving Trading Patterns:

Investors should be prepared for potential price fluctuations immediately after the halving. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin may experience a temporary drop followed by sideways movement for a couple of quarters. However, if history repeats itself, the real bull market is expected to commence in Q4 of this year and extend well into 2025. Some experts even predict a floor of $100,000 by 2025.



The convergence of a limited supply, surging demand, and the upcoming halving event sets the stage for a potential Bitcoin price surge to $100,000. As institutional interest continues to grow, these factors could unleash Bitcoin’s true potential. Moreover, past halvings have shown promising price increases, reinforcing the belief that Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise. Whether you are a seasoned investor or a curious observer, the evolving landscape of Bitcoin presents a compelling opportunity worth exploring.

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